Software developer at a big library, cyclist, photographer, hiker, reader. Email: chris@improbable.org
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We will not yield.

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I’ve always had an immigrant’s love for America.

The sort of foolish, naive love that blurs the edges of its faults.

The kind that papers over the worst episodes in our shared history, and looks deeper to our shared ideals — even when we have so often come up short.

When Trump won the first time I decided to leave journalism and joined the Army. I enlisted just a few days before his inauguration: Jan. 13, 2017.

In my mind then, and in my mind now: we have work to do.

Trump’s election is not a time for despair. We don’t have time for that. It is a time for action.

The Counteroffensive’s motto is: Authoritarianism and Empathy Can’t Mix.

I promise that we will not give up. We will not yield to fear, no matter how bleak the coming days will get.

  • We will continue to put people first: narrative journalism that illustrates how ordinary citizens are resisting tyranny.

  • I will continue to take care of our team, putting our safety and well-being first.

  • We will not abandon Ukraine, and we will not stop our reporting, regardless of the official position of the United States government.

But we have work to do.

The future of Ukraine’s sovereignty, of European peace, of America’s role in the world, of Taiwan’s existence as a free country — you have a hand in all of the above.

  • Call and write your representatives.

  • Protest when your government does something you disagree with.

  • Dissent, strenuously — by voice and by print.

  • Contribute to causes you believe in.

Use your rights as a free people, the kind that the Putins, Kims and Xis of the world fear most.

I will return to Kyiv shortly with a suitcase filled with hazardous materials contamination suits and gas masks. We need more.

And we need more batteries, as it looks like Ukraine will be plunged into darkness and cold this winter for 18-20 hours a day.

We need to purchase a cheap car for evacuation purposes. I gave away my used beater of a car to a Ukrainian friend who needed it desperately.

If you agree with our mission, this is the time to subscribe or hit the tip jar. As a small team, every dollar you contribute means direct impact for us.

Help us resist the coming darkness, both literally and figuratively.

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It’s not the end.

Nothing is inevitable.

What happens next is up to you.





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What Will Trump’s Win Mean

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Well, here we go again. Happy Wednesday.

by William Kristol

The American people have made a disastrous choice. And they have done so decisively, and with their eyes wide open.

Donald J. Trump will be our next president, elected with a majority of the popular vote, likely winning both more votes and more states than he did in his two previous elections. After everything—after his chaotic presidency, after January 6th, after the last year in which the mask was increasingly off, and no attempt was made to hide the extremism of the agenda or the ugliness of the appeal—the American people liked what they saw. At a minimum, they were willing to accept what they saw.

And Trump was running against a competent candidate who ran a good campaign to the center and bested him in a debate, with a strong economy. Yet Trump prevailed, pulling off one of the most remarkable comebacks in American political history. Trump boasted last night, “We’ve achieved the most incredible political thing,” and he’s not altogether wrong.

Certainly, even before he once again assumes the reins of power, Trump has cemented his status as the most consequential American politician of this century.

And when he assumes the reins of power, he’ll start off as a powerful and emboldened president. He’ll have extraordinary momentum from his victory. He’ll be able to claim a mandate for an agenda that the public has approved. He’ll have willing apparatchiks and politicians at his disposal, under the guidance of JD Vance and Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson and Stephen Miller, eager to help him advance that agenda. He’ll have a compliant Republican majority in the Senate. And it looks as if Republicans may narrowly hold the House.

It’s hard to imagine a worse outcome.

If you think, as I do, that Trump’s agenda could do great damage to the country and to the world, if you think of deportations of immigrants at home and the betrayal of brave Ukrainians abroad and you shudder, if you think that turning our health policy over to Robert Kennedy Jr. will cause real harm, you’re right to feel real foreboding for the future.

And of course there is no guarantee that the American people will turn against Trump and his agenda. They knew fully well who it was they were choosing this time. Their support may well be more stubborn than one would like. It certainly has been over the last four years.

So: We can lament our situation. We can analyze how we got here. We can try to learn lessons from what has happened. We have to do all these things.

But we can’t only do those things. As Churchill put it: “In Defeat: Defiance.” We’ll have to keep our nerve and our principles against all the pressure to abandon them. We’ll have to fight politically and to resist lawfully. We’ll have to do our best to limit the damage from Trump. And we’ll have to lay the groundwork for future recovery.

To do all this, we’ll have to constitute a strong opposition and a loyal opposition, loyal to the Declaration and the Constitution, loyal to the past achievements and future promise of this nation, loyal to what America has been and should be.

And we’ll have to have the fortitude to say, ‘Yes, at times a majority of the American people can be wrong.’ That they were wrong on November 5, 2024. That vox populi is not vox Dei.

I’ve sometimes quoted John McCain’s wonderful comment, something he used to say with deadpan irony: It’s always darkest . . . before it turns pitch black.

But the real McCain was cheerful about life and hopeful about America.

So as I write this before dawn Wednesday morning, and as I contemplate the dark and difficult period ahead, I’ll instead invoke, as he would in this circumstance, the original sentiment that he was using as his foil. As the mid-nineteenth century Irish writer Samuel Lover remarked:

There is a beautiful saying amongst the Irish peasantry to inspire hope under adverse circumstances: “Remember,” they say, “that the darkest hour of all, is the hour before day.”

“Hope under adverse circumstances.” That’s what we need. Hope followed by thought and action, all to help bring about a new day for a great nation which has, for now, made a terrible mistake.

by Andrew Egger

Donald Trump will return to power with a popular-majority mandate. What remains to be seen is how big an impediment, if at all, the Congress will be.

A few Senate races remain too close to call, but Republicans have already locked up 52 seats, and seem poised to pick up at least one more. Trump won’t have any trouble here: 52 was the number of Republicans he needed to neutralize frequent internal opposition from moderate Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. His priorities—at least those which Republicans can pass through the filibuster-dodging budget reconciliation process—will pass in the Senate, and he’ll have little trouble confirming the cabinet of lickspittles he desires. His federal criminal cases are already a thing of the past.

Meanwhile, control of the House of Representatives is still technically up in the air. But signs seem to point to yet another Republican majority, clocking in somewhere between tiny and small. The current tiny Republican majority, of course, spent the last two years in perpetual internal bickering and chaos. But that was because Republicans currently have no policy consensus on a number of major issues. What they do have a consensus on is doing Trump’s bidding.

Trump remains the most polarizing and controversial politician of our age. But what was most remarkable last night is how little that registered with voters. In fact, it may have helped. As we noted yesterday, incumbents around the world have been swept out of power over the last two years thanks to voter anger over global unrest and post-pandemic shocks to the economy. America may have weathered these shocks better than anyone else, but it didn’t matter. Americans followed suit anyway.

Democrats are left demoralized, their political coalitions shattered by a man they once thought was the last gasp of a dying strategy—running up the numbers with the white working class—without a clear sense of how they must course-correct. The knives are coming out already.

But the hard truth, after as staggering a loss as this, is that there may never have been a path for Harris. Biden was too unpopular and got out of the race way too late. And Harris found herself trapped. She needed to run away from Biden to escape the voters’ wrath at his term. But she also needed to run toward him as her only defense against Republican charges that she was too far to the left: After all, that was how she’d positioned herself in 2020 before she joined his ticket. In a polarized, doom-and-gloom electorate, both moves likely cost her more voters than they gained her.

This wasn’t the race she asked for—to be the last person standing to mount a furious defense against the rising tide of Trump’s lawless populism. The campaign she waged, given the circumstances, was likely the strongest anyone in her position could have mustered. In the end, how well or poorly she piloted her campaign just didn’t matter. Trump was blessed in 2016 to run against one of the weakest Democratic candidates ever put forward; this year, he was blessed to run against the woman left holding the bag, however stoically, for a president who had proven incapable of holding it himself.

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THE ABORTION-BALLOT OUTER LIMITS: Even abortion access—one of Democrats’ strongest issues over the last two years—ran into a wall for the first time at the polls last night. Until yesterday, no state referendum in the wake of Dobbs had failed to deliver increased access. Last night, Missouri and Arizona enshrined a right to abortion in their state constitutions. But similar efforts failed in Florida—thanks to a 60-percent threshold for constitutional amendments the effort could not surmount—and in South Dakota, a ruby-red state with a libertarian streak in ballot measures.

WHERE’S GEORGE SOROS WHEN YOU NEED HIM?: Are we allowed a couple little laughs amid the blackness? First, it sure is remarkable how Democrats—four years after supposedly conjuring millions of fraudulent Biden ballots in the dead of night to sweep Donald Trump out of power—completely failed to do the same this cycle. Our dastardly elites who can steal elections at will really dropped the ball!

And second: It remains very funny that—as of now! Knock on wood!—Arizona’s Kari Lake seems to be the Republican senate candidate who is underperforming the hardest. Trump may have swept Republicans back to their strongest position in decades, but Lake has proven that, for people not named Donald Trump, actually trying to be Trump remains a dead end.

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EDITOR’S NOTE, November 6, 2024: An earlier version of this newsletter referred to the budget reconciliation process as ballot reconciliation. Two different things!

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Big Tech Is Going to Take Ass-Kissing to New Heights

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Donald Trump was re-elected President of the United States on Tuesday, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris not just in the Electoral College tally but also in the popular vote. And Big Tech leaders wasted no time congratulating Trump on Wednesday, tweeting out messages that make it clear they’re ready to serve his needs however they can. It feels like a preview of the next phase, where so many will go meet Trump in person and kiss the ring of the 47th president, a man who’s promised to become a dictator on day one and deport millions of people in a scheme that’s pretty much guaranteed to devastate the economy. And it’s already making us nauseous.

The biggest beneficiary in the world of tech from Trump’s victory will almost certainly be Elon Musk, the Tesla CEO who spent at least $120 million to help Trump get elected and even spent last night at Mar-a-Lago strategizing with the once and future president. But there are plenty of other tech leaders who now must prove their fealty to Trump if they want to maintain or win new contracts with the U.S. government. And the ass-kissing line started with Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.

“Big congratulations to our 45th and now 47th President on an extraordinary political comeback and decisive victory,” Bezos tweeted Wednesday. “No nation has bigger opportunities. Wishing @realDonaldTrump all success in leading and uniting the America we all love.”

Trump has previously called Bezos “Jeff Bozo” and threatened Amazon repeatedly during his first term. But Bezos did Trump a solid shortly before the election, killing an endorsement of Harris by the newspaper he owns, the Washington Post. When Trump won his first term in 2016, Bezos congratulated the newly elected president by tweeting, “I for one give him my most open mind and wish him great success in his service to the country.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also sent his congratulations Wednesday on Threads, the social media platform launched in July 2023 to compete with Twitter, and was reportedly terrible at keeping people updated about the election Tuesday night.

Trump previously threatened to throw Zuckerberg in prison. But even after that unhinged rant, Zuck called Trump “badass” and was signaling during the entire campaign that he was another billionaire who would help Trump however he could.

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai also congratulated Trump on Wednesday.

“Congratulations to President @realDonaldTrump on his decisive victory. We are in a golden age of American innovation and are committed to working with his administration to help bring the benefits to everyone,” Pichai tweeted, including a map showing Trump’s victory.

Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple who Trump once called “Tim Apple,” also tweeted about Trump’s victory.

There were others who sent their congratulations, including Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who wrote he was “looking forward” to engaging with Trump, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy who called Trump’s win a “hard-fought victory,” and Sam Altman who wished Trump “huge success.”

Watching a bunch of millionaires and billionaires act so servile might be a bit jarring, when you recall that Trump is the guy who reportedly told his chief of staff that Adolf Hitler “did some good things too.” But we’re entering a completely new chapter in this country. The guardrails have completely fallen off and any wealthy folks with power in the world of Big Tech won’t have to fear many social consequences as Trump transforms the country in his own image.

There is so much more ass-kissing in all of their futures.

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The 2024 U.S. Election is Over. EFF is Ready for What's Next. | Electronic Frontier Foundation

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acdha
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Easy to say from California, though
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Thoughts on the Day After - TPM – Talking Points Memo

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Our publishing interface tells me I’ve written well over 40,000 posts in just shy of 24 years doing this. The ones I remember most clearly are the ones I wrote after big electoral defeats and shocks. I think of 2004 and 2016, and then, of course, the more subsidiary setbacks. I think about what I believe people need to — or what would be helpful for them to — hear, or what scaffolding of analysis or meaning one can use to begin to construct a place to house those feelings of shock, disappointment, desolation. More than anything else I try to capture the truth of the matter as I’m able to make sense of it. Because that’s my real job.

What did this mean? Why did this happen?

Join TPM and get The Backchannel member newsletter along with unlimited access to all TPM articles and member features.

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And Yet It Moves

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During COVID, I walked a lot. As a consequence, I started listening to more podcasts. Since then the walking has dropped off dramatically, as my wife would tell you. The habit of listening to history podcasts has stuck. I’ve been binge-listening to two of my favorites recently, The Rest is History and Fall of Civilizations, and I couldn’t help but notice that for most of history everything usually sucked.

Wars! Banditry! Plagues! Famine! Nothing resembling justice! Oppression! Frequent cruelty and death! Brutality as the unquestioned norm! Great civilizations collapsing from without and within! Unfairness! History is fascinating but as a lifestyle it had very little to recommend it until quite recently. Things have only gotten better in fits and starts for a tiny slice of the time we’ve been recognizably human. It got a little better with the Renaissance, a little better with the Enlightenment, and in many ways somewhat better over the last century. Many things still suck, but there are fewer of them, and they suck a little less.

Modernity has spoiled us in thinking things won’t get dramatically and catastrophically worse, worse in a way that will last for generations. But things have gotten abruptly much worse before, and they can again. And yet people must persevere, even if their children and grandchildren who will see the benefits and not them.

Trump won yesterday, as I feared he would. I firmly believe America — and likely the world — will get significantly worse for at least a generation, probably more. I’ll spare you, for now, the why. Frankly, I think you either already accept it or will never accept it. The things I care about, like the rule of law and equality before it, freedom of religion, freedom of speech, free trade in service of free people, relative prosperity, protection of the weak from the strong, truth, and human dignity are all going to suffer. Bullies and their sycophants and apologists will thrive.

Ask Yourself if You’ve Earned The Right To Wallow: I’m a middle-aged, comfortable, straight white guy. I’m not going to take the brunt of what happens. So I have decided not to wallow or give in to hopelessness. I haven’t fucking earned it. Americans far less fortunate than I fought greater and even more entrenched injustice. Civil rights protestors, anti-war protestors, African-Americans, women, gays and lesbians, Jews and Jehovah’s Witnesses, all sorts of people have bravely faced death and penury and injustice without giving up and without the protections I enjoy. What right do I have to give up? None. Maybe you’re different. You may not be as fortunate. I’m not judging you. I’m only judging myself and inviting you to ask the question. Be patient and merciful with people less able to fight.

Reconsider Any Belief In Innate American Goodness: Are Americans inherently good, freedom-loving, devoted to free speech and free worship, committed to all people being created equal? That’s our founding myth, and isn’t it pretty to think so? But a glance at history shows it’s not true. Bodies in graves and jails across America disprove it. We’re freedom-loving when times are easy, devoted to speech and worship we like with lip service to the rest, and divided about our differences since our inception. That doesn’t make us worse than any other nation. It’s all very human. But faith in the inherent goodness of Americans has failed us. Too many people saw it as a self-evident truth that the despicable rhetoric and policy of Trump and his acolytes was un-American. But to win elections you still have to talk people out of evil things. You can’t just trust them to reject evil. You must persuade. You must work. You have to keep making the same arguments about the same values over and over again, defend the same ground every time. Sometimes, when people are afraid or suffering and more vulnerable to lies, it’s very hard. Trump came wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross (upside down, but still) and too many people assumed their fellow Americans would see how hollow that was. That assumption was fatal.

Start Out Making a Small Difference: A country that votes for Trump is broken in very complicated and daunting ways. Harris could have won in a landslide and 45% of the people voting for Trump would still have reflected a country broken in terrible ways. Moreover, any road out is long and rocky and painful. A Trumpist GOP has control of the entire government, the judiciary is dominated by judges who are Trumpist or willing to yield to Trumpism if it gets rid of Chevron deference, and state and local politics are increasingly dominated by extremists. The GOP is doing everything it can to rig the game to make it harder to vote our way out, and after four more years a stuffed judiciary will be even less inclined to stop them. The struggle to fight back is generational, not simple.

But nobody’s telling you that you have to fix everything. You can fix something. In Schindler’s List, Stern tells Schindler “whoever saves one life saves the world entire.” So save the world that way — one fellow American at a time. You can’t stand up alone against all the Trumpist bullies in America, but maybe you can stand up to a few local ones in defense of a neighbor. You can’t save everyone from mass deportation but maybe you can help one family. You can’t save all trans people from the terrible, cynical jihad against them, but you might be able to support one trans person. Start small. Make a difference for just one person. Use the gifts you have. Use your voice.

Believe Unapologetically: Nobody likes to lose. So when your side loses an election, there’s huge social and psychological pressure to change your stance, to moderate what you believe so you don’t feel like a loser. Don’t do it. Things are worth believing and fighting for. Did you ever see a Trumpist moderate or express doubt? No. Trump spewed loathsome bigotry and lies and ignorance and promoted terrible and cruel policies, many of which he may actually implement. The fact he won big doesn’t mean you were wrong to oppose those things and condemn them. Nor does it mean that you can’t win an election in the future by opposing those things and condemning them. Even if it did mean that — even if America as a country has gone so irretrievably wretched that ignorance and bigotry are essential to electability now — then it would be time for something new and different rather than the Republic we have now.

Trump won; opposition to Trump lost. People will want you to abandon your believes because of that. They want you to bend the knee. Screw them. Evil has won before and will win again, and it’s not an excuse to shrug and go with the flow. It’s going to get harder to stand up for decent values. You will face scorn, official suppression, even violence. That’s not enough reason to stop.

Not only is abandoning your values weak, it’s credulous. The Trumpist narrative will be that the electorate soundly rejected anti-Trump values. But did they? How much of the electorate acted from indifference, indifference that will be swayed the other way some day by different economic or cultural factors? Consume skeptically the “this shows you must abandon these goals” narratives.

Fuck Civility: Do you need to be screaming and waving your middle finger in the face of Trump voters? Only if you want to. Live your best life. But please don’t be conned by the cult of civility and discourse, the “now is the time to come together” folks. You are under no obligation to like, respect, or associate with people who countenance this. We’ve all heard that we shouldn’t let politics interfere with friendships. But do people really mean that, sincerely? Do people really think you shouldn’t cut ties with, say, someone who votes for an overt neo-Nazi, or an overt “overthrow the system and nationalize all assets” tankie? I don’t buy it. I think everyone has their own line about where support of — or subservience to — a doctrine is too contemptible to let a civil relationship survive. For most of my life no major party candidate was over that line for me. I have trusted, liked, and respected people who have voted the other way for decades. But whatever my feelings about Trump in 2016 or 2020, Trump in 2024 is definitely over my line.

Furthermore, no civility code or norm of discourse is worth being a dupe. Trump and his adherents absolutely don’t respect or support your right to oppose him. They have contempt for your disagreement. They despise your vote. They don’t think it’s legitimate. The people who voted for him, at a minimum, don’t see that as a deal-breaker. So Trump voters, to the extent they fault you for judging them, have a double standard you need not respect. Part of the way Trumpists win is when you announce “ah well, voting for Trumpists is just a normal difference of opinion, we all share the same basic American values,” while the Trumpists are saying “everyone who disagrees with us is cuck scum, they’re the enemy within.” Stop that nonsense.

I am invited to break bread with people who think my children, by virtue of being born elsewhere, poison the blood of America — or at least with people who think it’s no big deal for someone to say so. I decline. I decline even to pretend to accept or respect the suggestion that I should.

Don’t Let Regression Trick You Into Abandoning Progress: I know what Christ calls me to do — to turn the other cheek and love the Trumpists. I am not equal to the task, and I’m at peace with that and will accept the price. However, I must advocate for a similar concept: we can’t allow Trumpism to trick us into abandoning key values like due process of law, freedom of expression, and freedom of religion, just because they scorn them.

It would be tempting to throw up our hands and give up on those values. They have proven wholly inadequate to counter Trumpism and to protect themselves. Trump is a rampant criminal who will escape consequences because the system failed us. It remains to be seen if the system will protect us as he and his followers seek to use it to retaliate against their enemies. Maybe the Federalist Society can have a Chick-Fil-A sack lunch to talk about it. What good is freedom of speech if it elects someone whose overt agenda is to limit freedom of speech? What good is freedom of religion if it least to the triumph of foul Christian nationalism? What good is due process if it protects the rich and suppresses the poor?

The answer is not comforting: nobody promised you a featherbed. The promise has never been that due process and freedom will always prevail. The argument has never been if we have them we’ll never be vulnerable to tyranny again. That’s not how it works. The argument is that they are better than the alternatives, more righteous, better to promote human dignity, less likely to be abused by the powerful against the powerless than the alternatives. The premise is that the alternatives are more dangerous. Believing in due process, freedom of speech, and freedom of religion are a form of humility: it shows we know we are fallible and should be trusted with as little power as possible.

With Trumpism ascendant, there will be huge pressure to abandon these values that weren’t enough to protect us. For instance there will be wider calls for regulation of media - even as a Trump administration may retaliate against media enemies. But don’t let Trumpists turn you into a Trumpist. The existence of Trumpists — the existence of people who would, at a minimum, shrug and accept Trump’s abuses — shows why government power should be limited.

That means supporting due process and freedom of speech and religion, even for Trumpists who do not support extending the same values to you. That’s the way it works. That’s as close as I get to turning the other cheek.

Trumpism Is Not The Only Wrong: The essence of Trumpism is the Nixon-to-Frost proposition that “if my side does it, it’s not wrong.” Trump dominates American conservatives and putative people of faith even as he rejects the values they’ve previously claimed, because they’ve decided he’s their guy. He’s famously intolerant of dissent within his camp and that’s only going to get worse.

Don’t be like Trumpists. Keep criticizing people “on your side” when they are wrong. Criticize your side on Gaza. Criticize your side on criminal justice — God knows Biden’s and Harris’ records warrant criticism. “My side, right or wrong” is not a way to live. We are all in this together, but you can’t protect values by abandoning them to appease allies.

Stay Tuned For Violence: Violence is as American as cherry pie. America was founded on, by, and through violence, and maintained by violence on several occasions. Debate is preferable. Jaw, jaw is better than war, war. But most Americans would agree with what Thomas Jefferson said about the blood of patriots and tyrants. At some point violence is morally justified and even necessary. Americans will disagree on when. But I think Trumpism brings it closer than it has been in my lifetime — certainly the prospect of defensive violence, if (when?) the Trumpists use it first. When? I don’t know. Putting more than ten million people in camps with the military and a nationalized law enforcement is a very credible candidate, though. 

Resist. Do not go gently. Do not be cowed by the result. Resist. Agitate, agitate, agitate. The values you believe in, the ones that led you to despise Trumpism, are worth fighting for whether or not we are currently winning. Ignore the people who will, from indifference or complicity or cowardice, sneer at you for holding to those values. Speak out. Every time you act to defend your fellow people, even in small ways, you defy Trumpism. In the age of Trumpism, simple decency is revolutionary. Be revolutionaries.

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wmorrell
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acdha
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“Trump came wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross (upside down, but still) and too many people assumed their fellow Americans would see how hollow that was. That assumption was fatal.”
Washington, DC
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